Increase in oil revenue amid unrest in Arab world gives Russia some breathing room

MOSCOW - With the price of oil climbing to more than $100 a barrel, Russia has a little more weight to throw around on the world stage, and it is doing just that.

The stepped-up flow of petrodollars into the government's coffers relieves what had been a worrisome budget deficit and lessens the urgency of reform. Good relations with the West - and especially the "reset" with Washington - are not quite so pressing when the economy here is in good shape.

Russia is benefiting tangibly from the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa. Urals crude sold for $113 this week, up from $75 a year ago. Of that, $76.50 goes into the Russian treasury. And the spike in oil income has compensated for growing weakness elsewhere. It arrived just as Gazprom - the natural-gas giant that until recently was a potent weapon in Russia's foreign policy - has seen its clout in Europe washing away amid a flood of competition.

An emboldened Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was in Brussels in late February angrily lecturing the Europeans on energy policy and the uprisings in the Arab world. After months in which Moscow and Washington have tried to put their differences over Georgia on a back burner, President Dmitry Medvedev two weeks ago accused the country of threatening the security of the 2014 Winter Olympics, to be held in Sochi, near the border of a breakaway region of Georgia.

Earlier this year, Russia's warming relations with Poland went sour over the handling of the investigation into the plane crash that killed Poland's president and other top leaders this past spring.

But with increased oil revenue also comes the danger of complacency. Bureaucrats, defense contractors, pensioners and workers in construction and finance all stand to gain from the money coming in, along with the oil companies. But the cash also feeds corruption, encourages increased financial opacity and discourages attempts to shake up the system - all of which could spell trouble for Russia down the road.

"All of the dominant groups in Russia get a share of the increased oil revenue," said Alexander Auzan, an economist and adviser to Medvedev. "Yet it contradicts their long-term interests."

Largest oil producer

It's a powerful prop for the status quo - which Auzan and others say is unsustainable.

But as Sergei Guriev, head of the New Economic School in Moscow, pointed out, any change is going to involve a cost for someone, so why take the risk if the money is flowing in?

Russia is currently the world's largest oil producer. When the price last spiked, in 2007, Moscow was flooded with money and people close to Putin were suggesting that Russia was genuinely self-sufficient and had no need to engage more deeply with the West. The economic crisis the following year brought that talk to an abrupt end, and Medvedev began pushing for a Western-oriented program of modernization and diversification away from dependence on energy exports.

The Kremlin moved to stimulate the economy in 2008 by increasing government salaries and hiking pensions by 35 percent. Now it is stuck with those increases. With oil revenue providing 40 percent of the Russian budget, the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy here has calculated that at any price less than $105 a barrel the government will be in the red.

That tempers any inclination toward hubris, said Daniel Treisman, a political scientist at UCLA who follows Russian developments. The Kremlin was looking at a difficult financial crunch, with parliamentary elections coming late this year and a presidential election next March, so the timing of this rise in revenue is more a relief than a goad to aggressive behavior.

"We don't need high prices," said Leonid Grigoriev, an economist and former World Bank adviser. "We need good relations, a long-term market and reasonable prices," which he put in the $70-to-$90 range.

Russia will not turn its back on the West, by any means, he said. But, especially in an election year, its leaders may be more vocal in pointing up differences with the West. In 2010, Russia had enough problems at home that it was actively trying to avoid them abroad; now, with money to address domestic issues, that caution may not be so evident.

Treisman, like many others, did not think much would ever come of Medvedev's modernization plans - it's not the sort of change, he said, that can be ordered from the top down. But the oil bulge makes the Westernization of the Russian economy less likely. It helps big companies - which, Grigoriev said, already dominate the economy to a much greater extent than in other developed countries - and it hurts small ones, where jobs and creativity tend to be nurtured.

Information technology firms, with high labor costs, will suffer, Guriev said, and they are central to Medvedev's vision for the future of Russia.

Gazprom loses clout

Part of what got Putin so riled up in Brussels was Europe's treatment of Gazprom, a gigantic state-owned operation that at one time had unchallenged sway in the European energy market. Gazprom was a powerful tool in the Kremlin's hands, useful when threatening Ukraine and a reminder to the rest of Europe that Russia had to be given its due.

But that was before American companies began extracting cheap natural gas from shale deposits, and before developments in liquefied natural gas (LNG) technology made inexpensive transportation by ship possible.

Qatar set up a new LNG port to ship gas to the United States, but when it couldn't compete there it turned to Europe instead. Today, Europe can buy gas cheaper from Qatar than it can get by pipeline from Russia. European companies have been renegotiating their contracts with Gazprom - downward - and the European Union has insisted that Gazprom divest itself of its pipelines.

Russia will still sell gas to Europe, said Pierre Noel, an energy expert at England's University of Cambridge, "but the pricing regime is changing." Gazprom, he said, will eventually have to change with it.

But the turmoil in North Africa has temporarily masked even Gazprom's difficulties. When the Libyan gas pipeline across the Mediterranean was shut down, Italy, which is Gazprom's second-biggest customer, relented for now in trying to renegotiate its contract.

If production in Algeria, a much bigger supplier than Libya, were to be disrupted, that would make Gazprom a power to be reckoned with again.

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Gasoline prices hit eight-month low

With the end of the summer driving season just around the corner, traders and investors on Monday drove gasoline prices to an eight-month low on U.S. commodities markets, providing the latest sign of pessimism about the economic recovery.

The sagging commodity market price for gasoline is good news for American motorists, promising a mild easing in pump prices. It also marks the end of a summer of relative stability for retail gasoline prices, which have fluctuated by about 20 cents per gallon since the beginning of the year and have stayed in an 8-cent range for the past 69 days.

Prices have been stuck in neutral because of the continuing weak global economy and fundamental shifts in the U.S. gasoline market, the world's biggest.

The surge in U.S. consumption that many refiners expected earlier this year has not materialized. Last week, the American Petroleum Institute reported that in July, U.S. gasoline deliveries (a measure of demand) were 9.3 million barrels a day, down slightly compared with July 2009. Except for 2008, it was the lowest July gasoline demand number since 2003.

A lack of consumer confidence and continuing high unemployment have kept people cautious about spending and traveling. "With unemployment high and July regular gasoline prices more than 20 cents a gallon above those a year ago, consumers likely have been shopping and vacationing less and trimmed their gasoline purchases accordingly," said John Felmy, the institute's chief economist.

But long-term trends -- such as improvements in the fuel efficiency of American autos -- played a part too, other analysts said. A steady increase in the biofuels component of U.S. motor fuel is another reason; the four week average for ethanol production ending Aug. 13 was 854,000 barrels a day, up nearly 18 percent from a year ago and now more than 9 percent of the volume of motor fuel, according to the Renewable Fuels Association.

With consumption lackluster, U.S. oil companies have been left holding much bigger than usual inventories of gasoline. That, combined with renewed pessimism about U.S. economic prospects, has prompted traders to increase their short selling of gasoline -- betting on a further decline in prices. Short positions jumped 20 percent in the week ended Aug. 17, according to figures compiled by Barclays Capital.

Crude oil prices have also tumbled after a brief surge. The price of a barrel of the benchmark West Texas Intermediate type of crude for delivery next month stood at $72.70 at the end of Monday, down from $82.55 on Aug. 3.

"What is amazing is the degree to which the trading community failed to understand that the gasoline season ended at Memorial Day weekend," said Edward Morse, a veteran oil analyst at Credit Suisse who has been predicting stable prices for months. "All the evidence was in sight that the market was going to be oversupplied."

Morse said that refinery output was "too high, Europe was exporting too much [fuel], biofuel blending components were rising, and the fuel efficiency of the fleet has grown remarkably in the past four years."

The American Automobile Association said Monday that the average retail price of a gallon of regular gasoline eased to just under $2.71 a gallon, down more than 4 cents from a week ago and up only 8 cents from a year earlier, when the economy was more deeply mired in recession.

There have been some signs of economic recovery, however, in petroleum statistics recently. The Petroleum Institute said that there was an 11.6 percent increase in deliveries of low sulfur distillates, which are primarily diesel fuels used in trucking, and a 6.9 percent increase in kerosene jet fuel deliveries. The price of diesel fuel also fell 4 cents a gallon in the past week, but it has climbed 28 cents from a year ago.

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Early cleanup efforts of gulf oil spill marred by communication woes, scammers

PASCAGOULA, MISS. -- Johnny Ray Harris hunted for oil in the gulf near his home for 45 days straight, radioing in coordinates to cleanup crews when he spotted large, inky patches floating in the choppy waters.

"I would call it in, but no one ever came. Not once," Harris said, sitting on his 73-foot-long shrimp boat beside a box filled with unused rubber boots, gloves and coveralls. "What a waste."

Harris is a part of BP's Vessels of Opportunity program that promised to turn out-of-work fishermen into a powerful task force, skimming and scooping up oil before it reached the shores of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Florida. At its peak, the program dispatched 3,200 boats at an average cost of $2,000 a day. In recent weeks, with a successful capping operation containing the spewing well, the oil company has scaled back to about 1,400 vessels.

Fishermen involved in the program and the company that runs it both say the effort -- costing $450 million so far -- has been fraught with problems. Much of the money doled out by BP probably went to opportunists rather than to commercial fishermen and charter boat operators whose livelihoods were disrupted by the spill. Harris and dozens of other fishermen said in interviews with The Washington Post that the amateur effort, which included laying and maintaining boom, failed to prevent oil from reaching the beaches, marshes and islands near their homes.

BP officials acknowledged that payments as high as $100,000 might have gone to recreational boat owners and others who enrolled multiple boats in the program and quickly seized an opportunity to cash in. But the officials said that it took time to identify problems and make needed reforms. "When a response of this size gets pulled together that quickly, things fall through the cracks," BP spokesman George Gigicos said.

Boat sales spiked in states around the gulf. And even though fishing was banned in as much as 40 percent of the water, officials saw a double-digit rise in demand for fishing licenses in three gulf states in April through July over last year's totals, according to data analysis done for The Post by wildlife officials in the four affected states. In Alabama, license sales shot up 66 percent; in Mississippi, they rose 30 percent; and in Louisiana, they went up 13 percent.

In late June, more than two months into the program, BP began asking participants for proof that their licenses had been issued before the oil spill, company officials said. The company also started a rotation system in mid-July that officials said they hope will pull in fishermen who have been passed by.

"I've been waiting by the phone for three months. I've heard nothing. I'm still not in," said Jerry Walker, who fishes for kingfish and red snapper in Louisiana. "I've been a fisherman for 40 years. I make 100 percent of my living from fishing. These guys out on the water, I've never seen any of them before in my life."

Gigicos said: "It did take some time to weed out the recreational vessels and the out-of town-vessels. It wasn't perfect at first." He added, "But for a while, our motto was 'All hands on deck.' We needed everyone we could get out there."

Fishermen and harbor chiefs describe the program's early days as chaotic and unproductive. Coast Guard planes flew overhead and spotted oil, but their crews were unable to communicate with the rag-tag bands floating beneath them. Repeatedly, boat owners in the program said in interviews that they thought they were part of a "show."

"The entire task force was on different radio frequencies," said Michael White, harbor chief in Long Beach, Miss. "I had to surf through 15 channels to find someone. From a distance, it looked good to have all those boats out there, but it was a mess."

At the height of the program, participants thought their boats would be equipped to skim oil from the surface of the gulf waters. Retired Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, who is coordinating the oil spill response, said in a June 11 news briefing that BP and the Coast Guard wanted to get "the skimming equipment in the hands of the vessels of opportunity out there."

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Administration reverses offshore drilling policy in eastern gulf, Atlantic

The Obama administration announced Wednesday that it will not allow offshore oil drilling in the eastern Gulf of Mexico or off the Atlantic coast through 2017, reversing two key policy changes the president embraced in late March.

The revised Interior Department drilling plan, which took industry officials and many environmentalists by surprise, will also delay the next two lease sales in the central and western Gulf of Mexico. It marks a sharp political shift by the White House - yanking concessions to conservatives and oil companies - in the wake of the massive BP oil spill and the collapse of comprehensive climate legislation.

Interior Secretary Ken Salazar told reporters that the decision to remove large swaths from the 2012-17 offshore lease plan was "based on our nation's experience with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill." Instead of opening up new areas to oil and gas exploration, Salazar said, the United States should "focus and expand our critical resources on areas that are currently active."

Salazar said the department would also gather new environmental information about drilling off the coast of Alaska, potentially postponing activity there.

The move eliminates the prospect of any drilling taking place off the coast of Virginia for several years, although as recently as eight months ago state and federal officials had envisioned holding a lease sale there in 2011. On March 31, President Obama declared his administration would study the prospect of energy exploration off the Atlantic coast from Delaware to Florida, along with areas in the eastern gulf and in Alaska's Chukchi and Beaufort seas.

Virginia Gov. Robert F. McDonnell (R), who spoke to Salazar by phone Wednesday, called the new policy "an irresponsible and shortsighted decision."

"It demonstrates a complete lack of confidence in the entrepreneurial spirit of American industry and its ability to fix the problems experienced in the gulf spill, and no confidence in the ability of the U.S. government to better plan for and react to offshore emergencies," said McDonnell, who had made drilling off Virginia's coast one of his top priorities.

"The cost of today's decision will be seen in major lost job opportunities, surrendered economic growth and increased dependence on foreign sources of energy, from nations often hostile to American interests," he said.

Criticism was bipartisan. A spokesman for Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) said that "while it is appropriate to take the time to incorporate lessons learned from the gulf disaster, Senator Warner sees no reason to delay this process for what realistically could be another seven years or more."

Offshore oil production from state and federal waters accounts for 9 percent of U.S. liquid fuel consumption and 32 percent of U.S. crude oil production. The Interior Department draws up five-year plans for lease sales to companies seeking to explore federal waters, which begin three miles from shore. If oil or gas is discovered, commercial production can begin some years later. The next five-year plan starts in 2012.

Interior said the lease sales scheduled for March and August 2011 in the central and western gulf would be postponed until the end of next year, if not later.

In addition, Interior will conduct a "supplemental" environmental analysis of Shell's plan to drill an exploratory well in the Beaufort Sea next summer. Officials said that Interior was "processing" Shell's permit request but that the new analysis will require another public comment period, ending Dec. 22. Shell has warned that delays could jeopardize its ability to prepare in time to drill next year.

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Chinese oil company, Chesapeake Energy enter deal for shale project in Texas

The China National Offshore Oil Corp. will pay Chesapeake Energy $2.2 billion for a one-third interest in a South Texas oil and natural gas shale project and will pay billions of dollars more for its share of development costs over the next several years.

Chesapeake Energy, an Oklahoma City-based domestic exploration company, announced the deal Sunday night, saying it will help speed development of resources on 600,000 acres in the Eagle Ford shale play that could help keep natural gas prices low and boost production of unconventional U.S. oil resources.

"They're providing the capital and we're providing the expertise and assets, and the output will be the development of American assets, less U.S. dependence on foreign oil and the creation of 20,000 jobs and tax revenues for all levels of government," Aubrey K. McClendon, Chesapeake's chief executive, said in an interview.

The investment by CNOOC is one of the company's biggest. Other CNOOC investments around the world have been aimed in part at securing sources of oil for China's growing economy, but this investment will not result in any oil shipments to China. Chesapeake will sell the resources, almost certainly in the United States, and send CNOOC its share of the proceeds.

Chesapeake has been seeking to raise money to help develop its extensive inventory of oil and gas acreage. The company has also been trying to pare its debt, which peaked at about 60 percent of the company's book value and which on Sept. 30 stood at about 42 percent. McClendon said the company's target was in the 30s.

CNOOC will pay $1.1 billion now and another $1.1 billion over the next two years by covering 75 percent of Chesapeake's share of development costs. After that, CNOOC will pay a third of the cost of all wells, which run about $6 million each and could number 5,000 or more over the next few years as the region is developed, McClendon said.

Chesapeake said CNOOC's investment will enable Chesapeake to quadruple the number of rigs it has drilling in the region to about 40 by the end of 2012.

Given the cost of development, many independent companies such as Chesapeake have been looking overseas for investors. U.S.-based oil giants such as Exxon Mobil and Conoco Phillips already have stakes in the region. Last week, Statoil and Talisman bought about 100,000 acres from Denver-based Enduring Resources. They paid about the same price as CNOOC did for its interest.

China has some shale gas, but the deal with Chesapeake does not involve any technology transfer or future project in China, McClendon said. He said Chesapeake has its hands full trying to develop resources in the United States.

Unlike shale developments elsewhere in the United States, the Eagle Ford has greater potential to produce crude oil as well as natural gas, McClendon said. He estimated that the United States could ultimately produce half a million barrels a day from shale. The country consumes 19.5 million barrels of oil a day, most of it imported.

The development of oil and gas from shale has aroused controversy over questions of how it would affect water supplies. And so far, most shale developments in the United States recently have produced natural gas, much of it from Pennsylvania and other parts of the northeast.

"Chesapeake's embedded safety culture and integrated environmental protection strategies will be adopted to safeguard personnel and the surface and subsurface environment," Chesapeake said in its news release.

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E.U. rules let Iran import, export oil, creating possible split from U.S. policy

TEHRAN - The United States and Europe have worked cooperatively on Iran policy since President Obama took office, but a small crack might have begun to open over sanctions that are beginning to pinch ordinary Iranians.

The European Union issued regulations this week that went well beyond a U.N. Security Council resolution passed in June, outlining tough restrictions on the sale of equipment and technology to the Iranian oil and gas industry, as well as on investment in those sectors. But the regulations - unlike legislation passed by the U.S. Congress - allow for the import and export of oil and gas to the Islamic republic.

"If you want to send a tanker filled with refined petrol to Iran, and you have proved that you are not carrying any other goods that we deem illegal, Europe has no problem," said a European official who specializes in sanction policies and spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject. "We don't want any negative effect on the Iranian population or to deprive them of energy, so we do not follow U.S. measures that go beyond United Nations sanctions."

The E.U. will also permit financial transactions needed to import of oil and gas to Iran. The United States, by contrast, penalizes companies if they sell gasoline to Iran, and has increased pressure on international oil companies and refineries to cancel their contracts with the country.

The practical effect of the European action might be minimal because European oil giants might still refuse to supply Iran with fuel for fear of appearing to thwart U.S. sanctions.

U.S. officials said Wednesday that they were broadly pleased with the European regulations, which they said could devastate Iran's oil and gas industry. "We are going at the supply, while they are going at the back end," said a senior administration official who handles the Iran portfolio. "We have had the kind of cooperation and coordination with the Europeans that has been unprecedented."

The U.S. official said he had never heard any concerns raised by his European interlocutors about the effect of the sanctions on ordinary Iranians. "The regulations turned out to be pretty solid," he said. "At each stage, when they have faced a choice between going soft or going heavy, they have gone heavy."

U.S. officials have in the past said that if the increased pressure is hurting ordinary Iranians, they should blame their leaders for the Islamic republic's increasing isolation.

But E.U. officials said Wednesday that they specifically allowed fuel sales to ease the burden on average Iranians.

According to June statistics, Iran needs to import 4.7 million gallons of refined petroleum each day because of the country's low refining capacity. After U.S. sanctions were implemented in July, Iranian leaders announced that they had started an emergency plan to increase local production by mixing oil with high-octane products.

At several European airports, planes belonging to Iran's national carrier, Iran Air, are being refused refueling services by representatives of major oil companies. According to the European Union, there is no legal basis for denying the airline services.

Iran Air has been able to refuel at only three European airports since a Sept. 30 agreement among the State Department and European oil firms Total of France, Statoil of Norway, Eni of Italy and Royal Dutch Shell of Britain and the Netherlands.

They pledged to end their investments in Iran and avoid new activity in the country's energy sector. In turn, U.S. officials said, the companies would be protected from possible U.S. penalties for doing business with Iran.

"We have complained to the U.S. about the extraterritorial effects of their measures on European companies," the European official said. "If those companies submit to U.S. wishes, it is their decision, but we are against these policies. This is a major issue for us."

There have been complaints in the European parliament over U.S. pressure on E.U. companies regarding Iran.

"If Europe accepts U.S. interference through pressure on its businesses, it is giving up independence," said Marietje Schaake, an influential parliament member who represents a liberal party. "The influence of U.S. interference beyond our own sanctions harms the E.U.'s credibility as a global player.

Kessler reported from Washington.

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BP announces changes aimed at helping cover costs from gulf oil spill

BP said Tuesday that it will restart its suspended dividend payments, put its troubled Texas City refinery up for sale and sell another $13 billion in assets, a move aimed at covering costs flowing from last year's the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

The British oil giant also said that it has sent a bill for $6 billion to its partners in the ill-fated Macondo oil well, Anadarko Petroleum and Mitsui, who it believes share liability for the disaster that killed 11 people and leaked nearly 5 million barrels of oil.

BP added $1 billion to its estimate of oil spill costs, bringing pre-tax charges related to the incident to a total of $40.9 billion. That figure does not include any payments by the partners, who say BP bears sole responsibility.

The announcements, including fourth-quarter operating earnings that were about 30 percent higher than a year earlier, closed out a catastrophic year for BP. Yet they painted a picture of a business on course to emerge largely intact, albeit about 15 percent smaller than it was before the spill.

BP chief executive Robert Dudley said that the company was pruning its least essential operations but would increase capital spending to $20 billion this year to explore and develop its most promising oil and gas prospects worldwide, including new frontiers in the Russian Arctic, Australia, the South China Sea and off Brazil's coast.

"We will be a different kind of company in the upstream going forward," said Dudley, who became chief executive after Tony Hayward resigned in the wake of the oil spill disaster. "We are taking this moment to make a broad strategic change," Dudley said, adding that BP would seek "different ways of unlocking value in the portfolio."

But BP executives in a Web cast said that the company's total production of oil and gas was equal to 3.67 million barrels a day, down 9 percent from a year earlier because of divestments, lower output in Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and development delays in the Gulf of Mexico.

Moreover, Dudley said that output would slide to 3.4 million barrels a day this year after further asset sales.

The projections left investors cautious about BP stock on a day when the market rose broadly. Shares of BP closed Tuesday at $47.98, down 51 cents or 1.1 percent. BP stock closed at $60.48 a share on April 20, hours before the Macondo blowout, and fell as low at $27.02 a share in late June.

The restoration of dividend payments was widely anticipated. BP set the new dividend at 7 cents a share, half the previous level. That will cost the company about $5 billion a year, leaving a substantial amount of cash to fund an escrow account for spill damages. Dudley said that BP would be careful to avoid setting the divided so high that it would have to rely on very high commodity prices to meet its payments without borrowing.

BP executives also said that the Texas City refinery, where a 2005 explosion killed 15 people, no longer fit into the company's strategic plans. BP has poured money into upgrading the facility and settling victims' claims since the accident. But it said it now hoped to sell the refinery, the third largest in the United States, by the end of 2012.

BP said it would also sell its Carson refinery near Los Angeles, reducing BP's total U.S. refining capacity by half.

Dudley said he remained committed to deepwater projects, despite last year's spill. He said BP had 19 deepwater wells planned for the Gulf of Mexico and off Angola's shore.

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