Hiring climate said to be 'modest' in coming quarter

Canadian employers expect to hire cautiously in the next three months, with job seekers more likely to have success in Western Canada than in Ontario and Quebec, according to a new survey of hiring intentions.

The latest quarterly employment outlook survey from Manpower finds that employers are forecasting only a "modest" hiring climate in the April-to-June period, with new business growth at its weakest level in five months.

Manpower's survey of more than 1,900 employers across Canada found that 16 per cent were planning to increase staffing levels, while four per cent were planning to cut them back.  

The healthiest hiring climate is in the Western provinces, with the rosiest opportunities in the construction, transportation and public utilities sectors.

"However, job growth is expected to be slower in Ontario and Quebec, with limited advances in full-time work expected for the coming quarter," said Manpower Canada vice president Byrne Luft in a statement.

Manpower said hiring intentions nationally fell two percentage points from the previous quarter to nine per cent. That represents a three percentage point drop from the outlook's forecast of a year ago. 

The weakest prospects are among manufacturers of non-durable goods.

Employment figures released last week by Statistics Canada showed a net loss of 7,000 jobs in February, with Quebec shedding 25,500 jobs.

Only 95,000 net new jobs have been created in Canada in the last year — a growth rate that is considered weak by historical standards. Job growth in the last six months has been especially weak. 

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Ottawa's 'dangerous' meddling biggest threat to housing: economist

Canada's hot housing market isn't in bubble territory, according to a new report which argues that it's the federal government's "dangerous" tightening of mortgage rules that poses the biggest threat to home prices.

That view, from housing market economist Will Dunning, runs contrary to many readings of Canada's housing sector.

Many analysts have examined the state of housing in this country and declared it overheated, overvalued, and ripe for a tumble in prices as soon as interest rates begin to rise.

Nonsense, says Dunning, who runs a real estate market research firm and frequently consults for the mortgage industry. 

For one thing, he dismisses some of the data that groups like the OECD have used to justify their diagnosis of a housing bubble as "badly flawed." 

The OECD report found that based on the ratio of house prices to rents, Canadian real estate is overvalued by as much as 60 per cent. But Dunning says the particular house-price-to-rent ratio used is inaccurate because it overestimates house price growth and underestimates the pace of rent increases. 

'Government actions to slow the housing market are not only unnecessary. They are also dangerous.'- Housing economist Will Dunning

Looking at house prices, Dunning says there is room to accommodate a sizable increase in house prices of as much as 25 per cent over the next two years, along with a rise in interest rates of as much as one percentage point from current levels.

"Rather than being overvalued, house prices in Canada are fairly valued, and they may even be undervalued," he writes in a report released Wednesday.

Dunning instead argues that it is Finance Minister Jim Flaherty who has created "dangerous" conditions for the housing market by tightening mortgage rules on four separate occasions.

"Government actions to slow the housing market are not only unnecessary," says Dunning. "They are also dangerous."

He says the most recent change, to eliminate 30-year amortizations for insured mortgages, "took demand out of a housing market that was already in a state of balance." He likened the effect of that one rule change to a one percentage point increase in mortgage rates.

"The deliberate reduction of housing demand, which is now clearly visible in the new and existing arenas, creates a risk that prices could fall, unnecessarily. Once prices start to fall, the outcome is unpredictable," he writes.

Dunning's report comes as a closely-watched indicator showed Canadian housing prices hitting a record high. The Teranet-National Bank composite price index rose 0.3 per cent month-over-month in February, led by gains in Western Canada.

Over the last 12 months, the index has increased by 5.0 per cent nationally. Prices in Calgary rose 9.6 per cent year-over-year and in Vancouver by 7.7 per cent. Toronto prices were up 6.1 per cent. 

But some markets saw year-over-year drops. Prices in Victoria fell 3.4 per cent, Halifax dropped 4.7 per cent and Ottawa-Gatineau slipped 0.6 per cent.

The Teranet-National Bank index tracks average home prices in 11 metropolitan markets based on data collected from public land registries.

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Average Wall St. bonus up 15% to $164,530 US

CBC News Posted: Mar 12, 2014 9:44 AM ET Last Updated: Mar 12, 2014 8:31 PM ET

The average Wall Street banker's bonus last year rose to the highest level since the recession, and up to the third highest figure on record, new data out of the N.Y. state comptroller's office showed Wednesday.

"Wall Street navigated through some rough patches last year and had a profitable year in 2013," New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli said. "Securities industry employees took home significantly higher bonuses on average."

The typical Wall Street worker took home $164,530 US in bonuses last year, the data shows. That's up 15 per cent from 2012's level and dwarfs compensation seen in any other industry.

The most recent data from Statistics Canada shows the average salaried worker earned $933 a week in December 2013. That works out to just over $48,000 a year — less than a third what Wall Street bankers were paid on top of their base salaries.

There's also evidence, however, that New York bankers may feel they're earning their pay. Total reported profits for broker/dealer operations among the big banks totalled $16.7 billion in 2013. That's 30 per cent less than the $23.9 billion they made in 2012 but still strong by historical standards.

Indeed, the industry as a whole has definitely rebounded from the financial crisis it started. Wall Street's securities industry has now been profitable for five consecutive years, including the three best years on record, the comptroller's office said.

If there's an area in which Wall Street is still hurting, it's likely in job numbers. DiNapoli estimates the securities industry employed 165,200 workers in New York City in December 2013, which is 12.6 per cent fewer workers than before the financial crisis. 

It's still an economic engine for New York, though. Wall Street makes up five per cent of the private sector jobs in New York, but it's responsible for 22 per cent of all the wages paid. And the state collected $10.3 billion in taxes from the industry last year, the data shows.

Mar 12, 2014 4:41 PM ET Mar 12, 2014 4:34 PM ET Mar 12, 2014 4:15 PM ET Mar 12, 2014 4:34 PM ET Mar 12, 2014 4:41 PM ET

The data on this site is informational only and may be delayed; it is not intended as trading or investment advice and you should not rely on it as such.

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Lower spending keeps Ottawa on track to hit deficit target

Ottawa says it remains on track to reduce the deficit as program spending falls in August.

The federal government says it recorded a $2.3 billion deficit in August, an improvement from the $3 billion shortfall it posted during the same month last year.

It says the key reason to the better monthly number was a $759-million decrease in program spending.

The Finance Department says the deficit for the first five months of the 2013-14 financial year as a whole now stands at $6.8 billion, slightly lower than the $7.2 billion posted for the same period last year.

The government revealed earlier this week that its deficit for the 2012-13 fiscal year had finalized at $18.9 billion, about $7 billion less than was predicted in the March budget.

Given the trend so far, Ottawa also appears in position to better its $18.7 billion deficit target for this fiscal year as well.

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