As gulf cleanup continues, BP will also struggle to clean up its brand

HOUSTON -- The protesters have stopped coming here to wave angry signs in front of BP's large office campus. The boycotts of BP gas stations are tapering off, too -- both signs that the energy company's plug of the spewing Gulf of Mexico oil well is quieting its loudest critics.

The shouting may be over, but rebuilding the company's badly tarnished brand will prove a much harder task -- one that advertising and oil industry experts say could be nearly as daunting as stopping the oil that gushed into the gulf for more than three months.

"It's probably the most notorious branding crisis in memory," said Tom Zara, director of corporate branding at Interbrand.

After the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded in April, BP went on the air with television ads and bought a series of full-page ads in The Washington Post, Wall Street Journal and other papers to position itself as an imperfect but responsible corporation committed to the cleanup of the gulf. The company has spent $55.8 million on television and print advertising so far this year, according to the Nielsen Co., which tracks ad spending. (The total for all of last year was $80 million.)

But as one of Washington's top corporate lobbying forces, BP took flak for paying lobbyists, so the company cut back that spending to only $3.3 million so far this year, compared with $8.2 million in the first six months of 2009.

BP has been bouncing back already in the place where its brand meets consumers -- at its gas stations. After the spill, sales dropped off 40 to 50 percent at some stations on the Gulf Coast, but in most cases business declines have leveled off to about 10 percent on the gulf and less than 5 percent in other parts of the country, said John Kleine, executive director of the BP Amoco Marketers Association, which represents the station owners.

Kleine, who calls the station owners "investors" in BP's brand (their only link with the company is contracts to buy gasoline), said they began facing angry protests after the spill and turned to BP for help. The company gave them signs and took out print and radio advertisements emphasizing that the stations were locally owned and operated. At some stations BP helped the owners do customer appreciation campaigns with free car washes and cups of coffee. Corporate staffers flew in to stand in driveways and listen to customers' concerns, Kleine said.

"Where the owner is known in the community, there is a less significant impact," Kleine said. "I think BP has to recognize that the local face is really a value to their brand even more so than anybody thought."

Company's evolution

BP, which began selling gasoline in Britain in the 1920s, has long been a company that cared a lot about its name -- and changed it several times. After it bought Amoco in 1998, the company British Petroleum to become BP Amoco, then two years later shortened it to BP, to signify that it was more than a petroleum company and emphasize its investments in alternative energy.

The company dropped the shield and torch that had represented British Petroleum and Amoco and adopted a logo called the Helios, which looks like a sunflower bursting with petals. BP says the design is named after the Greek sun god and represents "dynamic energy in all its forms."

The company's Web site declares that its brand can be summed up in two words: "beyond petroleum." Its executives have preached the importance of "social responsibility on a global scale" at major business conferences.

As British Petroleum, it won the support of some environmental groups in 1997 when it announced that it agreed with scientists that global warming stems from an excess of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases released through the burning of fossil fuels. It pledged to greatly increase its investment in solar power. Still, other environmentalists, including Greenpeace, called such investments a relatively insignificant part of the company's portfolio. In 2000, more than 10,000 students from seven Ivy League schools signed a pledge refusing to accept jobs at BP Amoco because the company had pursued permission to drill in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

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Increase in oil revenue amid unrest in Arab world gives Russia some breathing room

MOSCOW - With the price of oil climbing to more than $100 a barrel, Russia has a little more weight to throw around on the world stage, and it is doing just that.

The stepped-up flow of petrodollars into the government's coffers relieves what had been a worrisome budget deficit and lessens the urgency of reform. Good relations with the West - and especially the "reset" with Washington - are not quite so pressing when the economy here is in good shape.

Russia is benefiting tangibly from the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa. Urals crude sold for $113 this week, up from $75 a year ago. Of that, $76.50 goes into the Russian treasury. And the spike in oil income has compensated for growing weakness elsewhere. It arrived just as Gazprom - the natural-gas giant that until recently was a potent weapon in Russia's foreign policy - has seen its clout in Europe washing away amid a flood of competition.

An emboldened Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was in Brussels in late February angrily lecturing the Europeans on energy policy and the uprisings in the Arab world. After months in which Moscow and Washington have tried to put their differences over Georgia on a back burner, President Dmitry Medvedev two weeks ago accused the country of threatening the security of the 2014 Winter Olympics, to be held in Sochi, near the border of a breakaway region of Georgia.

Earlier this year, Russia's warming relations with Poland went sour over the handling of the investigation into the plane crash that killed Poland's president and other top leaders this past spring.

But with increased oil revenue also comes the danger of complacency. Bureaucrats, defense contractors, pensioners and workers in construction and finance all stand to gain from the money coming in, along with the oil companies. But the cash also feeds corruption, encourages increased financial opacity and discourages attempts to shake up the system - all of which could spell trouble for Russia down the road.

"All of the dominant groups in Russia get a share of the increased oil revenue," said Alexander Auzan, an economist and adviser to Medvedev. "Yet it contradicts their long-term interests."

Largest oil producer

It's a powerful prop for the status quo - which Auzan and others say is unsustainable.

But as Sergei Guriev, head of the New Economic School in Moscow, pointed out, any change is going to involve a cost for someone, so why take the risk if the money is flowing in?

Russia is currently the world's largest oil producer. When the price last spiked, in 2007, Moscow was flooded with money and people close to Putin were suggesting that Russia was genuinely self-sufficient and had no need to engage more deeply with the West. The economic crisis the following year brought that talk to an abrupt end, and Medvedev began pushing for a Western-oriented program of modernization and diversification away from dependence on energy exports.

The Kremlin moved to stimulate the economy in 2008 by increasing government salaries and hiking pensions by 35 percent. Now it is stuck with those increases. With oil revenue providing 40 percent of the Russian budget, the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy here has calculated that at any price less than $105 a barrel the government will be in the red.

That tempers any inclination toward hubris, said Daniel Treisman, a political scientist at UCLA who follows Russian developments. The Kremlin was looking at a difficult financial crunch, with parliamentary elections coming late this year and a presidential election next March, so the timing of this rise in revenue is more a relief than a goad to aggressive behavior.

"We don't need high prices," said Leonid Grigoriev, an economist and former World Bank adviser. "We need good relations, a long-term market and reasonable prices," which he put in the $70-to-$90 range.

Russia will not turn its back on the West, by any means, he said. But, especially in an election year, its leaders may be more vocal in pointing up differences with the West. In 2010, Russia had enough problems at home that it was actively trying to avoid them abroad; now, with money to address domestic issues, that caution may not be so evident.

Treisman, like many others, did not think much would ever come of Medvedev's modernization plans - it's not the sort of change, he said, that can be ordered from the top down. But the oil bulge makes the Westernization of the Russian economy less likely. It helps big companies - which, Grigoriev said, already dominate the economy to a much greater extent than in other developed countries - and it hurts small ones, where jobs and creativity tend to be nurtured.

Information technology firms, with high labor costs, will suffer, Guriev said, and they are central to Medvedev's vision for the future of Russia.

Gazprom loses clout

Part of what got Putin so riled up in Brussels was Europe's treatment of Gazprom, a gigantic state-owned operation that at one time had unchallenged sway in the European energy market. Gazprom was a powerful tool in the Kremlin's hands, useful when threatening Ukraine and a reminder to the rest of Europe that Russia had to be given its due.

But that was before American companies began extracting cheap natural gas from shale deposits, and before developments in liquefied natural gas (LNG) technology made inexpensive transportation by ship possible.

Qatar set up a new LNG port to ship gas to the United States, but when it couldn't compete there it turned to Europe instead. Today, Europe can buy gas cheaper from Qatar than it can get by pipeline from Russia. European companies have been renegotiating their contracts with Gazprom - downward - and the European Union has insisted that Gazprom divest itself of its pipelines.

Russia will still sell gas to Europe, said Pierre Noel, an energy expert at England's University of Cambridge, "but the pricing regime is changing." Gazprom, he said, will eventually have to change with it.

But the turmoil in North Africa has temporarily masked even Gazprom's difficulties. When the Libyan gas pipeline across the Mediterranean was shut down, Italy, which is Gazprom's second-biggest customer, relented for now in trying to renegotiate its contract.

If production in Algeria, a much bigger supplier than Libya, were to be disrupted, that would make Gazprom a power to be reckoned with again.

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Rising fuel prices putting everyone in a bind

NEW YORK - High fuel prices are putting the squeeze on drivers just as they are starting to feel better about the economy. They also are forcing tough choices on small-business owners, who are loath to charge more for fear of losing cost-conscious customers.

Gasoline prices rose 4 percent last week to a national average of $3.29 per gallon. That's the highest level to date for this time of year, when prices are typically low. And with unrest in the Middle East and North Africa pushing the cost of crude oil into the $100-a-barrel range, analysts say pump prices probably are headed higher.

Bryon Gongaware, an owner of the Floral Trunk and Gifts in White Bear Lake, Minn., didn't raise his $7 flower delivery charge when gas prices spiked in 2008, and he doesn't plan to do so this time, either.

"I don't think the economy is solid enough that you can be careless about raising prices," he said.

That means the extra costs that come from driving the store's delivery van 70,000 miles a year come from only one place: "Right out of the bottom line," he said.

For drivers such as Robert Wagner, 51, a high school teacher from Thornton, Colo., the higher fuel prices mean cutting back on movies and dinners out for him, his wife and their two children. "We're very, very frugal right now," he said as he trickled enough $3.09-per-gallon gasoline into his Chevrolet Suburban to get him to his next pay day.

Analysts and economists worry that by lowering profits for businesses and reducing disposable income for drivers, high gasoline prices could slow the recovering economy.

For a year, analysts estimate, oil at $100 a barrel would reduce U.S. economic growth by 0.2 or 0.3 of a percentage point. Rather than grow an estimated 3.7 percent this year, the economy would expand 3.4 percent or 3.5 percent. That probably would mean less hiring and higher unemployment.

Americans are less prepared to absorb the increase in gasoline prices than the last time they rose to this level, in 2008, because the unemployment rate is higher and real estate values are lower, said David Portalatin, an analyst for market research firm NPD Group.

It has been four months since gasoline was more than $3 per gallon. During that time, drivers have spent $14 billion more on gasoline than they did a year ago, Portalatin said.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial in Chicago, said this year's cut in payroll taxes offers consumers a buffer against higher fuel prices. Still, she expects all but the wealthiest Americans to cut back on discretionary spending. And the longer prices stay high, the more damage they do.

Gasoline prices rose throughout last fall as the developing nations of Asia and the recovering economies of the West began using more oil.

In recent weeks, upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa stoked fears that oil supplies would be disrupted, and oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel for only the second time in history.

Much of the most dramatic unrest took place in countries that are not big producers of oil. But when Libya plunged into chaos, there were disruptions in shipments of its high-quality crude, which is well-suited to making gasoline. That sent refiners scrambling to find other sources of high-quality oil. Gasoline prices rose further.

Gasoline prices typically fall in the winter and rise in the spring as refiners switch to more expensive summer blends of gasoline. Since 2000, prices in May have been 52 cents per gallon on average higher than in February, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service, believes that the normal seasonal rise in prices has been pulled ahead by events in the Middle East, but he still expects prices to rise further. He predicts prices will reach $3.50 to $3.75 per gallon, barring more chaos in the Middle East.

"When we get over $3.75 we are looking at very serious consequences for the economy," he says.

For every 25-cent increase in the price of gasoline, the nation spends an extra $3 billion filling up its cars and trucks, Kloza says.

For Jay Ricker, who owns 51 convenience stores in Indiana that sell gasoline under BP and Marathon brands, that's less money for the "affordable luxuries" he offers - cappuccinos and candy bars that people enjoy, but can do without. "I hate these high prices," he says. "People don't want to come in and buy something I make money off." Drivers often get angry when gasoline prices spike for reasons that aren't apparent, such as refinery problems or overseas demand for oil.

This time, though, the dramatic news reports from the Middle East are making customers more understanding, says Scott Hartman, CEO of Rutter's Farm Stores, which owns 56 convenience stores and gas stations near Harrisburg, York and Lancaster, Pa.

"Whenever you see chaos in the Middle East, people expect higher prices, and this has been more widespread than most of us have seen in our lifetimes," he says. "It's quite clear our customers know what's going on." That doesn't mean they like it.

When asked about fuel prices at a RaceTrac service station in Dallas, Shaun DuFresne tapped the screen on the pump, showing he had just spent $90.14 for diesel - at $3.50 a gallon - to fill his 2006 Ford F-250 pickup truck. Then he said something unprintable.

- Associated Press

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